Saturday, May 05, 2007

Kentucky Derby Predictions

It’s the first Saturday in May and that means one thing – It’s DERBY DAY!!!.....

Let’s talk horses....there are 20 horses and we need to eliminate some in order to make our selections....The Wall Street Journal’s Allen St. John helped us out with yesterday’s edition, he wrote that the last 15 Derby winners finished at least fourth or better in its final prep race...

He went on to write that a strong performance does not mean a victory though....the Wood Memorial is considered the premier prep race....however, since 1982, only one Wood winner – Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) went on to win the Derby....he continued that the last winner of the Santa Anita Derby to win in Kentucky was Sunday Silence in 1989....the last horse to win the Blue Grass Stakes and follow-up with a Derby win was Strike the Gold in 1991....

Therefore, that means Nobiz Like Sobiz (winner of the Wood Memorial), Tiago (Santa Anita), and Dominican (Blue Grass) will not win the Derby....

Curlin may be the favorite, but I think come post time, the "hot" horse will be Street Sense.....according to Andy Beyer, in yesterday’s Washington Post, he wrote, ". . . no 3-year-old has been pointed toward tomorrow’s race more thoughtfully than Street Sense."....

Railbird Roberts also picked Street Sense as did my dad....even my track friend Lenny is going with Street Sense......the Street Sense delegation looks solid, but Rick Snider and myself like Scat Daddy....Snider wrote, in his column yesterday, that he wanted a horse who is a ". . . stalker who can jump up at the top of the stretch . . . " him, Scat Daddy is that horse....I went with Scat Daddy because trainer Todd Pletcher has never had a Derby winner....he has two good shots today with Scat Daddy and Circular of them will hit it big for Pletcher....

So here are some picks:
Railbird Roberts - Thistledown Race Track
Win - Street Sense
Place - Great Hunter
Show - Circular Quay
Darkhorse - Sam P.

Rick Snider - Examiner Newspapers
Win - Scat Daddy
Place - Zanjero
Show - Curlin

Ignatius - my dad
Win - Street Sense
Place - Curlin
Show - Nobiz Like Shobiz

My picks
Win - Scat Daddy
Place - Circular Quay
Show - Stormello
Darkhorse - Storm in May

Who knows what will happen once I get down the track today....I remember in 2002 I went down there all hot for Harlan's Holiday....but as the horses came out of the paddock something hit me when I saw War Emblem...I don't know if it was love at first sight, but I said to my dad, that horse is going to win...he just had this confident walk - it's hard to explain...I went up and place $10 on War Emblem...the rest is history....Good luck to all.....

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